AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.

A recent economics study analyzed whether artificial intelligence has harmed employment prospects for recent college graduates in 2026, finding no evidence of widespread job displacement or reduced hiring in this group. The research matters because prominent business leaders had predicted that accelerating AI capabilities would cause unusually high unemployment among new graduates entering the workforce this year. The researchers examined Census employment data for college graduates aged 22 to 25 from 2022 onward, comparing their unemployment rates across years and against other age groups, and found 2026 summer unemployment rates were within normal historical ranges. The findings contradict an earlier Stanford study showing lagging employment in AI-impacted fields, though the researchers note that future graduating classes could face different outcomes if AI workplace adoption continues to intensify.